This seems fairly true of many fertile periods: the foreigners make up, at most, a few percentage points of the population. For example, japanese visual art is pretty mediocre from the 900s to the 1600s - but great between then and the meiji era. They shut off access to the outside world, and thats apparently how we got ukiyo-e. But what did the meiji era, when the doors were flung open to the accumulated treasures of the western world, ever produce? And to go the other direction: the Impressionists and other artists of the time received trickles of Asian artwork which apparently inspired them (my own single favorite block-print by hiroshige also exists - as a van Gogh painting! but what has happened since as masses and masses of artwork became available?
On the, road, not, taken
There are attractive similarities in subject matter and even medium, light novels living including a fair number of color manga illustrations. Question for self: if America doesnt have the light novel category, is that a claim that the. Twilight novels, and everything published under the james Patterson brand, are regular novels? Answer: The, twilight novels are no more light novels than the. Harry potter novels were. The patterson novels may fit, however; they have some of the traits such as very short chapters, simple literary style, and very quick moving plots, even though they lack a few less important traits (such as including illustrations). It might be better to say that there is no recognized and successful light novel genre rather than individual light novels - there are only unusual examples like the patterson novels and other works uncomfortable listed under the young Adult/Teenager rubric. Leaving aside the corrosive effects on social solidarity documented by putnam and Amy Chuas market minorities, ive wondered about the artistic consequences of substantial diversity to a country or perhaps civilization. Human Accomplishment, one of the strongest indicators good for genius is contact with a foreign culture. This foreign contact can be pretty minimal - thomas Malthus drew on threadbare descriptions of Chinas teeming population, and the French philosophes had little more to go on when drawing inspiration in Confucianism, as did the later rococo and chinoiserie artists; much of American design. They did much with little, one might say.
The hard part here, of course, is convincing the other party youll repay in the futureyour barrier to riches isnt the apocalypse, its your own trustworthiness. Thats where attorneys and insurance companies come. Lloyds is happy to offer hole-in-one insurance, so the industry has no problem writing policies that pay out upon joyous events. I think one of the more interesting trends in anime is the massive number of adaptations of light novels done in the 90s and 00s; it is interesting because no such trend exists in American media london as far as I can tell (the closest. Now, American media absolutely adapts many novels, but they are all normal Serious Business novels. We do not seem to even have the light novel media - young adult novels do not cut the mustard. Light novels are odd as they are kind of like speculative fiction novellas. The success of comic book movies has been much noted - could comic books be the American equivalent of light novels?
If youre right, then 12 years later you get to keep the money. If youre wrong, you have to pay the other party the normal rate of return on the 1, plus a little extra. 2 should be plenty if you can back the contract with some collateral; maybe 4 otherwise. Notice what youre doing here: youre writing an uninsurance policy. You get the premiums up front, and you pay out only if things turn out fine. Since the other party is pretty sure things will turn out fine, the deal youre offering from their point of view is about the same as any other investment. Thats why you only have to offer about the normal rate of return.
The, road, not, taken by, robert
From Eliezer Yudkowskys, the Apocalypse bet, suppose you think that gold will become worthless mmu on April 27th, 2020 at between four and four-thirty in the morning. I, on the other hand, think this event will not aventure occur until 2030. We can sign a contract in which I pay you one ounce of gold per year from 2010 to 2020, and then you pay me two ounces of gold per year from 2020 to 2030. If gold becomes worthless when you say, you will have profited; if gold becomes worthless when I say, i will have profited. We can have a prediction market on a generic apocalypse, in which participants who believe in an earlier apocalypse are paid by believers in a later apocalypse, until they pass the date of their prediction, at which time the flow reverses with interest.
I dont see any way to distinguish between apocalypses, but we can ask the participants why they were willing to bet, and probably receive a decent answer. Garett Jones, how can these prophets of doom cash in on their confidence? After all, they think that the state of the world where theyre proven right is a state of the world where nobody can reward them for being right. Aside from the self-congratulation, how can they benefit? By signing a contract right now. If youre reasonably sure Treasuries will be worthless in a dozen years, you should find somebody who disagrees, and convince them to give you 1 today.
This is survivorship bias; our observations are biased because we arent looking at all of the past, but the present. This can be exploited, however. Obviously if an entity perishes, it has no need for assets. Suppose one wishes to make a very long-term investment. One groups with a large number of other investors who wish to make similar investments, in a closed-end mutual fund with a share per investor, which is set to liquidate at some remote period. This fund would invest in assets all over the world and of various kinds, seeking great diversification.
The key ingredient would be that shares are not allowed to be transferred. Should an investor perish, the value of their share would be split up amongst the other investors shares (a percentage could be used to pay for management, perhaps). Because of this ingredient, the expected return for any individual investor would be extremely high - the potential loss is 100, but the investor by definition will never be around for that loss. Because the identity and number of investments is fixed, potential control of the assets could be dispersed among the investors so as to avoid the situation where war destroys the headquarters of whomever is managing the assets. The technical details are unimportant; cryptography has many ingenious schemes for such secret sharing (one can easily heavily encrypt a file as usual, and then using. Shamirs Secret Sharing, create distribute n keys where any chosen number of keys up to all n are needed to decrypt the file).
The road Not taken - poems Academy of American poets
But these risks are catastrophic risks. Even one book may be too many. This risk is more general. Governments can die, and so their bonds and other instruments (such as cash) rendered worthless; how many governments have died or defaulted over the last century? The default assumption must be that the governments with good credit, who are not in that number, may simply have been lucky. And luck runs out. In general, entities die unpredictably, and one has no guarantee that a, say, 1500 year old Korean construction company will honor its bills in another 500 years because all it takes is one bubble to drive it into bankruptcy. When one looks at securities turning into money, of course all you see are ones for those entities which survived.
How could a god be dethroned? It is perhaps not too much to say that investors in the United States, who say that the Treasury bond has never failed to be redeemed and that the United States can never fall, are perhaps overconfident in their assessment. Inflation need not be hyper to cause losses. Greater nations have been destroyed quickly. Who remembers the days when the dutch fought the English and the French to a standstill and ruled over the shipping lanes? Remember that Nineveh is one with the dust. In short, our data on returns is biased. This bias indicates that stocks and cash are much more risky than most people think, and that this risk inheres in exogenous shocks to economies - it may seem beginner odd to invest globally, in multiple currencies, just to avoid the rare black swans of total.
not even be made. Clearly, diversifying among companies in a sector, or even sectors in a national economy is not enough. Disaster can strike an entire nation. Rosy returns for stocks quietly ignore those bloody years in which exchanges plunged thousands of percentage points in real terms, and whose records burned in the flames of war. Over a timespan of a century, it is impossible to know whether such destruction will be visited on a given country or even whether it will still exist as a unit. How could Germany, the preeminent power on the continent, with a burgeoning navy rivaling Britains, with the famous Prussian military and Junkers, with an effective industrial economy still famed for the quality of its mechanisms, and with a large homogeneous population of hardy people possibly. And by the United States and others, for that matter? How could Japan, with its fanatical warriors and equally fanatical populace, its massive fleet and some of the best airplanes in the world - a combination that had humbled Russia, that had occupied Korea for nigh on 40 years, which easily set up puppet governments.
A closed-end fund is a collective investment scheme with a limited number of shares. In long-term investments, one must become concerned about biases in the data used to make decisions. Many of these biases fall under the general rubric of observer biases - the canonical example being that stocks look like excellent investments if you only night consider Americas stock market, where returns over long periods have been quite good. For example, if you had invested by tracking the major indices any time period from January 1926 through December 2002 and had held onto your investment for at least 19 years, you were guaranteed a positive real return. Of course, the specification of place (America) and time period (before the depression and after the Internet bubble) should alert us that this guarantee may not hold elsewhere. Had a long-term investor in the middle of the 19th century decided to invest in a large up-and-coming country with a booming economy and strong military (much like the United States has been for much of the 20th century they would have reaped excellent returns. That is, until the hyperinflation of the weimar Republic.
Mother, essay, writing, in, english
And on that dread day, the Ineffable One will summon the artificers and makers of graven images, and he will command them to give life to their creations, and failing, they and their creations will be dedicated to the flames. Some say that a god lives on in the faith and memory of its believers. They point to computers and say, behold, they need but think all together in a particular precise mode, and from nowhere appear things real and greater than any they thought. Might not the same be true of humans, who are so much greater? But this is no more true than a painting of a flower the flower itself. That is, from January 1926 through December 2002, when holding periods were 19 years or longer, the cumulative real return on stocks was never negative. How does one engage in extremely long investments? On a time-scale of centuries, investment is a difficult task, especially if one seeks to avoid erosion of returns by the costs of active management. Unit Investment Trust (UIT) is a us investment company offering a fixed first (unmanaged) portfolio of securities having a definite life.